The Dirty Resolutions Report

Issue #1 · 2026-08-15 · generated from the full nightly scan

1178 of 2100 open Polymarket markets (56%) cite no resolution-source URL at all.

8 markets cite at least one source that is verifiably dead (404/410/DNS failure after browser-UA retry). The 15 worst-graded markets below carry $695,325,834 in combined volume.

Methodology note: every URL is sanitized before probing and bot-gated sources are classified BOTWALL, not dead — these figures do not overstate rot. Full rubric: /v1/methodology.

Grade distribution

A 747 (36%)
B 168 (8%)
C 1019 (49%)
D 166 (8%)
F 0 (0%)

The 15 worst

GradeScoreMarketVolumeTop factor
D56Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$54,538,223NO_URL
D56Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54,254,410NO_URL
D56Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$52,665,917NO_URL
D56Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$50,182,353NO_URL
D56Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$48,450,217NO_URL
D56Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$44,488,311NO_URL
D56Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$44,383,486NO_URL
D56Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$44,165,965NO_URL
D56Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$43,844,579NO_URL
D56Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$43,583,724NO_URL
D56Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$43,376,354NO_URL
D56Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$43,002,214NO_URL
D56Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$42,936,620NO_URL
D56Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$42,756,556NO_URL
D56Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$42,696,905NO_URL

Every row links to a public evidence page; every score is reproducible and Ed25519-signed. Press/researchers: cite freely with a link.